周末票房：《S8驚世檔案》險勝

《不再讓你孤單》is having nice legs. I knew fans of tearjerkers would seek the movie despite low number of screenings. Grossing over HK$4 million will be a good consolation price.

I am also astonished how well X-MEN FIRST CLASS is doing. Sometimes HK market is very hard to predict, but lately our market has been very kind to sequels, even when they are bad. I think this unfortunately diminishes the impact of FAST FIVE doing so well at the box office, probably not for being a very strong sequel to a weak franchise, but because HK audiences just will spend anything on sequels…

..but then again sequel-mania is a worldwide trend, so Hong Kong should now be proud of being followers.

Would really like to see if《S8驚世檔案》can at least finish with around HK$11-12 million despite opening way lower than some of last year’s summer Hollywood movies like SALT, KNIGHT & DAY and A-TEAM.

五六月的超級大片只有 3d加勒比海盜一部 (不計六月底那一檔), 觀眾都被擠去捧FF5, 異能第一戰,醉爆伴郎團2等片, 造成這些片今年有突破性的本地票房

B :Super 8 did not fail in the US. It had a better than expected opening.

Here, Super 8 will be affected by Green Lantern next week. But the most concerning thing will be the stigma that it carries. It’s an alien film and HK moviegoers are not kind to an alien movie’s legs. I expect around a HK 9 million total.

If we are only looking at Alien movies, the opening of SUPER 8 wasn’t bad at all for the USA. It may even have legs there, but for Hong Kong, I agree it is a different deal, but one thing we must not ignore the fact it has a nice weekend climb over Thursday’s grosses.

The last major Alien movie, BATTLE LOS ANGELES, climb only 50% on its weekend over its Thursay opening, and the movie ended up having a multiplier of 13 when all its done.

Therefore, SUPER 8 should have potential to close with a higher multiplier, hence it may finish with HK$10 million if there is any WOM kicking in, despite the arrival of GREEN LANTERN.

If Ryan Reynolds become a b.o. draw due to the success of the PROPOSAL, then perhaps the movie can attract more female audiences. Let’s face it, 3D is more of a liability than asset for GREEN LANTERN at this point, and SUPER 8 may not be at an disadvantage, as both are not sequels, and it is time to show 2D movies can kick 3D.

愛情潛水 票房走勢略遜於 愛情回水,且看埋單能否一百萬?

首11日累積票房(單日票房):

愛情回水 51萬(6萬)

愛情潛水 43萬(5萬)

Rat :
五六月的超級大片只有 3d加勒比海盜一部 (不計六月底那一檔), 觀眾都被擠去捧FF5, 異能第一戰,醉爆伴郎團2等片, 造成這些片今年有突破性的本地票房

相當有見地的分析，把事實一針見血地說了出來。

Ken Resurrected The last major Alien movie, BATTLE LOS ANGELES, climb only 50% on its weekend over its Thursay opening, and the movie ended up having a multiplier of 13 when all its done.

Therefore, SUPER 8 should have potential to close with a higher multiplier, hence it may finish with HK$10 million if there is any WOM kicking in, despite the arrival of GREEN LANTERN. Therefore, SUPER 8 should have potential to close with a higher multiplier, hence it may finish with HK $ 10 million if there is any WOM kicking in, despite the arrival of GREEN LANTERN.

A better comparison would be Cloverfield. That also had the mysterious effect used and it dropped 62% in its 2nd weekend with no competition. It also finished below a 2 multiplier. Now, Super 8 has gotten better WOM but it is opening against Green Lantern. Also, all 5 films this week had bigger than normal increases on Saturday. That suggests that it may not be Super 8 that people are waiting to watch on the weekend but ANY movie.

Already Super 8 is facing deep cuts in its 2nd week. So far, in 5/7 Broadway theaters for Thursday, Super 8 is in a smaller theater in X-Men.

I didn’t expect Conspirator and Love For Life to be in limited release so adjustments were made to both predictions while Something Borrowed jumped up due to limited theaters for Love For Life.

Predictions for June 16 weekend (2nd update)

Green Lantern: HK $5.45 million
The Conspirator: $194,570
Something Borrowed: $1.75 million
Love For Life: $342,444
Henry’s Crime: $38,914

Super 8: -59%
X-Men: First Class: -52%
Hangover 2: -61%
Pirates 4: -64%
Microsex Office: -56%

shtmanhk :

不再讓你孤單 票房勝 非誠勿擾2,難道 劉燁+舒琪 比 葛優+舒琪 本地叫座力高一些?
上半年賀歲檔後的合拍片,只有杜韋的單身男女一片香港和內地成績皆理想.
最新響起的警號,華誼兄弟首席執行官王中軍作出如此批評:
港片規模創意落後內地 難拍思想深刻大片
　　
當被問到對於香港電影在華語片市場地位的時候法，華誼兄弟首席執行官王…

領先香港少少就以為自己衝出國際喇? on99

無名 :
shtmanhk :

不再讓你孤單 票房勝 非誠勿擾2,難道 劉燁+舒琪 比 葛優+舒琪 本地叫座力高一些?上半年賀歲檔後的合拍片,只有杜韋的單身男女一片香港和內地成績皆理想.最新響起的警號,華誼兄弟首席執行官王中軍作出如此批評:港片規模創意落後內地 難拍思想深刻大片　　當被問到對於香港電影在華語片市場地位的時候法，華誼兄弟首席執行官王…領先香港少少就以為自己衝出國際喇? on99

大陸人不嬲都自以為是喇

天凶之城 有一定程度的後遺症(異形侵略戰開畫票房可見一班),《S8驚世檔案》針對非家庭客往後年青觀眾口碑至為重要.(綠燈俠下周客路相近)

S8首4日走勢維持天凶之城及末世凶煞首4日的基本盤(D9水準最出色首段略遜埋單七百多萬),而兩片次周四皆急跌埋單七百多萬.(S8似乎步其後塵)

口碑理想或合乎口味的 星空奇遇記 及 異形侵略戰首4日累積票房不及S8驚世檔案,但埋單可九百多萬.(狂野時速5 首4日累積票房419萬)

首4日累積票房(首周日單日票房)

天凶之城
464萬(?萬)(58院356場)

末世凶煞
413萬(100萬)(37院)

異形侵略戰
409萬(47院237場)

D-9異型特區
370萬(?萬)(35院205場)

星空奇遇記
353萬(250場)

破天．慌
236萬(40院)

—————-

S8驚世檔案
446萬(54院306場)

It will be shocking if SOMETHING BORROWED, seemingly borrowing its own Chinese title from another local movie, can gross over HK$150K on its first Thursday. That should really worry me, but it only proves that there is always market for female oriented movies.

香港觀眾有見識，荷里活 3D科幻 片未必熱爆，『綠燈俠』開畫只收過一百萬，希望有後勁吧！

shtmanhk :
shtmanhk :

郭繾澂最近一針見血指出如果認為中文片大有可為只知其一不知其二,苦口婆心電影市場如不開放創作自由恐怕造就荷李活片在內地稱霸:
http://ol.mingpao.com/cfm/star5.cfm?File=20110612/saa03/mzc1.txt
中文片在內地市場失敗，直接影響香港市場，這是必然的事。內地的市場保護隨加入WTO，被迫進一步放寬，面對荷李活片…

異能第一戰 和 變種特攻3 距離漸遠,但始終和
鐵甲奇俠2 有一大段距離.

首11日累積票房(單日票房):

神奇4俠 1397萬(103萬)
神奇4俠2 1547萬(107萬)

變形俠醫 763萬(54萬)
新變形俠醫 996萬(85萬)

戰狼300 1161萬(87萬)
公元前一萬年 1044萬(70萬)
越空行者 993萬(63萬)

義勇群英 1027萬(?萬)

變種特攻3 1604萬(104萬)

異能第一戰 1819萬(?萬)

魔盜王4 首22日累積票房已超越上集,成為同系列最高票房.

首22日累積票房(單日票房):

黑夜之神 4916萬(57萬)
潛行凶間 4575萬(71萬) — 49院211場
哈利波特4 4424萬(16萬)
哈利波特7 4250萬(15萬) –97場
2012 4235萬(34萬) — 45院152場

愛麗絲夢遊仙境 3809萬(26萬)–41院140場
小人國大歷險 3050萬(?萬)
地心探險記 2816萬(49萬)

魔盜王3 3956萬(16萬)
魔盜王2 3374萬(19萬)
魔盜王 946萬(6萬)

魔盜王4 4186萬(21萬) — 33院91場