票房預測比賽結果（20100826）

估唔到(綫人),(轟天猛將)和(阿凡達:特別版)收咁多.wow,剛才真係眼花撩亂.

Ken好勁呀!雖然只係我73.52%,係成績保証啦!下周可能有好多電影要估.

I am glad STOOL PIGEON did better than I thought. Although EXPENDABLES opened on top, I am sure this film will have no legs, and STOOL PIGEON may benefit from better word of mouth and overtake it, much like what happened with IP MAN 2 vs. IRON MAN 2.

At the same time, it is very hard to estimate number of screenings for STOOL PIGEON and AVATAR SPECIAL EDITION. My primary source is wmoov for the past few weeks, and now I need to look elsewhere.

siu yan : 守護甜心的粉絲 :Ken好勁呀!雖然只係我73.52%,係成績保証啦!下周可能有好多電影要估.是,有同感,本人對大部份電影過於低估,看來下次玩之前需做些功課.

Glad you finally can play again. Hope everybody will compete fairly and have fun and learn with each other.

Also, I notice nobody guess 《荒村公寓》「不入十大」, which is great, it means everybody make an effort to really guess how much it make, instead of taking the short cut. ^^

英子 :
英子 :估唔到(綫人),(轟天猛將)和(阿凡達:特別版)收咁多.wow,剛才真係眼花撩亂.同時都低估左暑假未電影唔高開的情況

Yes 英子, this last weekend of the summer is looking good, making its final rush, especially compare to last year:

http://www.hkfilmart.com/weeklyboxoffice.asp?wbid=554&go.x=28&go.y=9

I have been making a fuss about this summer being over-dominated by TOY STORY 3 and INCEPTION, and that very few movies over the past few months gross over HK$15 million. Now finally AFTERSHOCK is coming very close, and STEP UP 3D is targeting HK$17 million or more, before school starts.

I hope somebody would make a summer review of 2010.

Ken :
I also notice while I never believe in nostalgia for Stallone, I am actually among the only two players who predict EXPENDABLES to gross HK$700K or above, while I am among the only few who did not thi…

Anyway,In support of most readers are not old.

Ken :
英子 :英子 :估唔到(綫人),(轟天猛將)和(阿凡達:特別版)收咁多.wow,剛才真係眼花撩亂.同時都低估左暑假未電影唔高開的情況

Yes 英子, this last weekend of the summer is looking good, making its final rush, especially compare to last year:
http://www.hkfil…

其實今年暑期既戲瑪好強,選擇又多,而舊年就弱得多,試問點會有好既開畫票房呢?

nbachung :
奇怪多人低估《綫人》開畫票房?…宣傳做足+6料影帝+上集囗碑一致.怎能低估佢.

The reason why I underestimate STOOL PIGEON, was because I have no idea how many screenings it has. At wmoov website on Wednesday night, it only indicated about 100 shows, but then clearly this is not right because on the magazines it indicated at least over 35 theatres showing.

Therefore, I estimated at least 5 shows on each theatres for a total of 175 shows, so I come up with HK$630K, or per show attendance at around 70.

Turns out STOOL PIGEON has over 230 shows!

shtmanhk :
今年及去年戲碼相差不大,只是今年港片太弱.

I cannot agree with you, Mr shtmanhk!

There are three chinese language or Hong Kong movies last year that crossed HK$11 million, but last year should be one of the best summers for HK movies.

2010:
人間喜劇 HK$7.2 million
全城戒備 HK$3.3 million (est.)
槍王之王 HK$7 million
出水芙蓉 HK$1 million (est.)
唐伯虎點秋香2之四大才子 HK$500K (est.)

2009:
再生號 HK$4.1 million
殺人犯 HK$11.8 million
音樂人生 (N/A)
竊聽風雲 HK$15.4 million
大內密探零零狗 HK$9 million
Laughing Gor 之變節 HK$15.5 million
麥兜噹噹 HK$2.3 million (est.)
復仇 HK$1.8 million (est.)
機器俠 HK$1.3 million

Just look at how many HK movies last year compare to this year (not including new movies opening last weekend of summer 2009 and 2010).

It also does not help HK movies that AFTERSHOCK and 海洋天堂 take away more theatres and audiences this year.

Ken :
Sorry forget to add 2010’s 翡翠明珠 HK$3.1 million (est.)

為何暑期檔期不計7-8月嗎?

(Laughing Gor 之變節)不是收逾千六萬嗎!?

Ken :
shtmanhk :今年及去年戲碼相差不大,只是今年港片太弱.
I cannot agree with you, Mr shtmanhk!
There are three chinese language or Hong Kong movies last year that crossed HK$11 million, but last year should be one of the be…

siu yan :
不好意思,是5-6月
siu yan :Ken :Sorry forget to add 2010’s 翡翠明珠 HK$3.1 million (est.)為何暑期檔期不計7-8月嗎?

For Hong Kong, people only want to count July-August as summer. I am not sure why. I have been debating about that.

shtmanhk :
nbachung :奇怪多人低估《綫人》開畫票房?…宣傳做足+6料影帝+上集囗碑一致.怎能低估佢.

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